1) If you've never read Sadly, No!, you need to. Really.
2) Atrios is calling off electoral horse-race analysis through Tuesday. I'll admit to getting a bit carried away by that myself... There actually is real life happening out there, and the tragic death of G'Kar of Obsidian Wings is a harsh, bitter reminder.
3) I haven't meant to be a blog-hog, really, I haven't. Brandy will be back soon in all her postalicious glory!
Saturday, January 5, 2008
Friday, January 4, 2008
Iowa: The Republicans
Read the previous disclaimer. Oh, ok, ok, I'll repeat it: This is "analysis", and as with all analysis is a mixture of knowledge, experience, and pure conjecture. In other words, I have a logical basis for what I'm pulling out of my ass...
Basically, Huckabee has turned this race into even more of a mess than it was before. Heheheheeeee......
Huckabee:
He could very well be the nominee. That should scare the crap out of everyone alive. Actually, most of the R's should do that, but Huckabee even more so because he has what's called the "common touch" -- that is, being able to use a humorous, self-effacing demeanor to mask the fact that he's absolutely batshit insane (see "Reagan, Ronald"). Too many D's are laughing at him and not realizing what a scary-good politician he really is, and how improbable-yet-inevitable his Iowa victory was. His numbers are climbing in NH, he's solid in Michigan, he's way ahead in SC, and he's basically tied with Giuliani in Florida. He just has to have a decent showing in NH on Tuesday, and if he does it'll be a Huckabee-McCain race.
Romney:
If you outspend everyone else in the race by ridiculous margins and can't put together a win, that means something is seriously wrong with either the campaign or the candidate, usually both. Romney's proved himself to be the "empty suit" of this election, or this year's answer to Phil Gramm in '96. This was supposed to be his win, and he didn't, not by a long shot. NH is supposed to be his, too, but McCain has been surging there (more on that below). If he can't win convincingly in his neighboring state, stick a fork in him. He'll be yet another testament to the old political equation that $$$ + good hair + no real rationale for being President = a waste of money and good hair.
Thompson:
His Iowa campaign was kind of like watching an adult panda in a zoo: everyone's excited to see him, but the excitement fades when he just sits there, doesn't do much, and goes back inside after a few minutes. His numbers everywhere are pretty anemic, and I still say he'll get out any day now.
McCain:
He barely even campaigned here, but still tied for third. He's leading in NH. All of a sudden, having his campaign implode over the summer and going into stealth mode looks like the most brilliant strategy ever. Now that "multiple-choice-Mitt" is damaged goods, Thompson shows no signs of life (literally), and Giuliani has decided to be MIA until Florida, McCain is a viable candidate for the nomination. Look for him to be the "anyone-but-Huckabee" choice.
Paul:
All that money raised, all that buzz, all those dorks with their freeway-overpass signs, all those annoying comments posted on every blog in existence (except this one -- they haven't found us yet), and he can't even beat Grandpa Fred? Hm... It's been speculated widely that considering Paul's low "burn rate" -- the amount of money raised vs. the amount spent -- he's conserving his resources getting ready for a third-party bid (oh please, oh pleeeeeeaaaazeee!!!! It'd be comedy gold!).
Giuliani:
Bypassed Iowa and is largely bypassing New Hampshire to focus on the larger, delegate-rich states. Might look good on paper until you realize that he's handed every one of his opponents a month of free media while he stays largely invisible. This may well be the dumbest, most arrogant, most politically inept thing he's done since... well, come to think of it, pretty much everything he does is dumb, arrogant, and politically inept.
Hunter:
Who? That guy still around?
Keyes:
Nobody's really noticed he's running, and nobody will notice in August when he'll still be running. The man truly lives in his own universe mentally. If only that were true physically as well.
In a nutshell, it's going to be a Huckabee-McCain race down the stretch, with Keyes going on a hunger strike in the desperate hope that someone somewhere will pay attention to him.
Basically, Huckabee has turned this race into even more of a mess than it was before. Heheheheeeee......
Huckabee:
He could very well be the nominee. That should scare the crap out of everyone alive. Actually, most of the R's should do that, but Huckabee even more so because he has what's called the "common touch" -- that is, being able to use a humorous, self-effacing demeanor to mask the fact that he's absolutely batshit insane (see "Reagan, Ronald"). Too many D's are laughing at him and not realizing what a scary-good politician he really is, and how improbable-yet-inevitable his Iowa victory was. His numbers are climbing in NH, he's solid in Michigan, he's way ahead in SC, and he's basically tied with Giuliani in Florida. He just has to have a decent showing in NH on Tuesday, and if he does it'll be a Huckabee-McCain race.
Romney:
If you outspend everyone else in the race by ridiculous margins and can't put together a win, that means something is seriously wrong with either the campaign or the candidate, usually both. Romney's proved himself to be the "empty suit" of this election, or this year's answer to Phil Gramm in '96. This was supposed to be his win, and he didn't, not by a long shot. NH is supposed to be his, too, but McCain has been surging there (more on that below). If he can't win convincingly in his neighboring state, stick a fork in him. He'll be yet another testament to the old political equation that $$$ + good hair + no real rationale for being President = a waste of money and good hair.
Thompson:
His Iowa campaign was kind of like watching an adult panda in a zoo: everyone's excited to see him, but the excitement fades when he just sits there, doesn't do much, and goes back inside after a few minutes. His numbers everywhere are pretty anemic, and I still say he'll get out any day now.
McCain:
He barely even campaigned here, but still tied for third. He's leading in NH. All of a sudden, having his campaign implode over the summer and going into stealth mode looks like the most brilliant strategy ever. Now that "multiple-choice-Mitt" is damaged goods, Thompson shows no signs of life (literally), and Giuliani has decided to be MIA until Florida, McCain is a viable candidate for the nomination. Look for him to be the "anyone-but-Huckabee" choice.
Paul:
All that money raised, all that buzz, all those dorks with their freeway-overpass signs, all those annoying comments posted on every blog in existence (except this one -- they haven't found us yet), and he can't even beat Grandpa Fred? Hm... It's been speculated widely that considering Paul's low "burn rate" -- the amount of money raised vs. the amount spent -- he's conserving his resources getting ready for a third-party bid (oh please, oh pleeeeeeaaaazeee!!!! It'd be comedy gold!).
Giuliani:
Bypassed Iowa and is largely bypassing New Hampshire to focus on the larger, delegate-rich states. Might look good on paper until you realize that he's handed every one of his opponents a month of free media while he stays largely invisible. This may well be the dumbest, most arrogant, most politically inept thing he's done since... well, come to think of it, pretty much everything he does is dumb, arrogant, and politically inept.
Hunter:
Who? That guy still around?
Keyes:
Nobody's really noticed he's running, and nobody will notice in August when he'll still be running. The man truly lives in his own universe mentally. If only that were true physically as well.
In a nutshell, it's going to be a Huckabee-McCain race down the stretch, with Keyes going on a hunger strike in the desperate hope that someone somewhere will pay attention to him.
Iowa: The Democrats
This is "analysis", and as with all analysis is a mixture of knowledge, experience, and pure conjecture. In other words, I have a logical basis for what I'm pulling out of my ass...
It's basically down to Clinton and Obama, and New Hampshire will be pivotal in determining how long the contest will go on.
Obama:
This was a convincing win, no question about it. Now he has to prove that he's not a one-state wonder. In his favor is the fact that NH is so close after Iowa that the "insurgent underdog" meme will still be working for him; all he has to do there is tie, and frankly, even a very close second will still work for him. He's put enough of a dent into the front-runner's armor that her poll numbers in the upcoming states are going to drop noticeably. He still has the "experience" thing to overcome, though -- most voters polled in Iowa seemed to buy his argument that "experience" wasn't necessarily a good thing, but it remains to be seen if voters elsewhere will agree.
Clinton:
I don't care how she spins it, Clinton's third-place showing in Iowa is disastrous, especially when coupled with the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll conducted just before the caucuses. According to said poll, Clinton leads Obama in New Hampshire 32%-26%. That's not really much of a lead, and when you take into account that this poll was conducted before the caucuses, it's nothing but bad news for Hilary. She has the money and the organization to carry on through Super Tuesday, but if she can't win convincingly in New Hampshire it'll be increasingly difficult for her to rationalize continuing her campaign. She and Obama were already essentially tied in South Carolina (the next big primary after NH), and this won't help at all. It's do or die for her on Tuesday; she needs to win and win big.
Edwards:
Still in the hunt in NH; if he can pull out another second-place finish there, he'll stay alive for a while. But at this point he's either campaigning for VP or to influence the debate; the nomination isn't a real possibility for him at this point. That said, personally I hope he stays in as long as possible; I voted for him in '04 and would do so again this time around. His emphasis on economic justice is a message that needs to be heard.
Everyone else: Dodd and Biden are already out. Richardson will stay in through NH as a formality. Gravel will stay in until they pull off his mask and he grumbles about those "meddling kids". And Kucinich will stay in as long as the UFO's tell him to.
It's basically down to Clinton and Obama, and New Hampshire will be pivotal in determining how long the contest will go on.
Obama:
This was a convincing win, no question about it. Now he has to prove that he's not a one-state wonder. In his favor is the fact that NH is so close after Iowa that the "insurgent underdog" meme will still be working for him; all he has to do there is tie, and frankly, even a very close second will still work for him. He's put enough of a dent into the front-runner's armor that her poll numbers in the upcoming states are going to drop noticeably. He still has the "experience" thing to overcome, though -- most voters polled in Iowa seemed to buy his argument that "experience" wasn't necessarily a good thing, but it remains to be seen if voters elsewhere will agree.
Clinton:
I don't care how she spins it, Clinton's third-place showing in Iowa is disastrous, especially when coupled with the Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll conducted just before the caucuses. According to said poll, Clinton leads Obama in New Hampshire 32%-26%. That's not really much of a lead, and when you take into account that this poll was conducted before the caucuses, it's nothing but bad news for Hilary. She has the money and the organization to carry on through Super Tuesday, but if she can't win convincingly in New Hampshire it'll be increasingly difficult for her to rationalize continuing her campaign. She and Obama were already essentially tied in South Carolina (the next big primary after NH), and this won't help at all. It's do or die for her on Tuesday; she needs to win and win big.
Edwards:
Still in the hunt in NH; if he can pull out another second-place finish there, he'll stay alive for a while. But at this point he's either campaigning for VP or to influence the debate; the nomination isn't a real possibility for him at this point. That said, personally I hope he stays in as long as possible; I voted for him in '04 and would do so again this time around. His emphasis on economic justice is a message that needs to be heard.
Everyone else: Dodd and Biden are already out. Richardson will stay in through NH as a formality. Gravel will stay in until they pull off his mask and he grumbles about those "meddling kids". And Kucinich will stay in as long as the UFO's tell him to.
So What Does Iowa Mean?
In a nutshell, it means that Clinton and Romney are in deep, deep trouble, McCain is back from the dead, Edwards needs to cling to life until South Carolina, Obama and the Huckster are entering a new world, and everyone else -- Giuliani included -- may as well pack up and go home.
That's the short version. Longer versions to follow...
That's the short version. Longer versions to follow...
Thursday, January 3, 2008
The Fredwatch Begins...
Apparently, according to Zogby, Fred Thompson is experiencing a last-minute "surge" in the polls. All the way into a tie for third. A whole four percentage points. Double digits. Woohoo! Go Fred!
Before you get too impressed, for comparisons' sake I once experienced something similar when I took Intro to Astronomy my sophomore year. I experienced a late-breaking "surge" in my study habits and managed to pull out a "C". It didn't look good on my transcript, and this will not look good on Frederick of Hollywood's political resume.
Word on the street is that he's dropping out before New Hampshire. Then he can enjoy a life of quiet, tranquil retirement, a life unburdened by meetings, appointments, schedules -- you know, kind of like his whole Presidential campaign.
In any event, the caucuses begin in mere hours. Can you taste the excitement?
No, neither can I.
Before you get too impressed, for comparisons' sake I once experienced something similar when I took Intro to Astronomy my sophomore year. I experienced a late-breaking "surge" in my study habits and managed to pull out a "C". It didn't look good on my transcript, and this will not look good on Frederick of Hollywood's political resume.
Word on the street is that he's dropping out before New Hampshire. Then he can enjoy a life of quiet, tranquil retirement, a life unburdened by meetings, appointments, schedules -- you know, kind of like his whole Presidential campaign.
In any event, the caucuses begin in mere hours. Can you taste the excitement?
No, neither can I.
Wednesday, January 2, 2008
Oh, and another thing...
Happy New Year. With any luck, I'll have some post-Iowa commentary on Friday.
People have asked me what I think is going to happen at the caucuses; I'm reminded of the astronomer who, when asked to submit a 500-word essay on whether there was life on other planets, responded with the words "nobody knows" repeated 250 times.
For a broader view of exactly how bizarre, Byzantine, outdated, and counter-productive the Iowa Caucus system actually is, check out Jeff Greenfield at Slate.
People have asked me what I think is going to happen at the caucuses; I'm reminded of the astronomer who, when asked to submit a 500-word essay on whether there was life on other planets, responded with the words "nobody knows" repeated 250 times.
For a broader view of exactly how bizarre, Byzantine, outdated, and counter-productive the Iowa Caucus system actually is, check out Jeff Greenfield at Slate.
Tuesday, January 1, 2008
Why Huckabee Matters
Disclaimers: I believe that Mike Huckabee is a homophobe and a loon. Whatever comments I make on his candidacy are not to be taken as any form of support, any more than examining a deadly scorpion in a bottle means that I've suddenly decided scorpions are cute and cuddly and make great pets.
Nevertheless...
It's interesting that his out-of-the-mainstream religious views (do I win a prize for understatement?) are what's been getting the most attention; the basic meme running through the chattering classes has been that the Evangelicals are supporting Huckabee because they've finally gotten sick of being used and are taking over and are finally, finally going to convince every last man, woman and child that the earth is 6000 years old, dammit! This interpretation of events -- and particularly the brouhaha over Huckabee's "Christmas ad" -- has Kos practically cackling with glee, and it's got Peggy Noonan wistfully crying into her kool-aid:
Because, of course, the last thing in the world that any politician should ever do is make Peggy Noonan and the Beltway crowd uncomfortable. Never mind all those icky things like "ideas".
None of this is surprising in the slightest, but it's been a distraction from what really has Grover Norquist and the Club for Growth crowd completely freaked out, namely the fact that the Huckster is a lot more William Jennings Bryan than Ronald Reagan -- that is to say, his appeal may rely just as much on his populist economic message as it does his crazy-ass Creationism.
If you actually look at both his record of actions and his on-the-record statements, Huckabee isn't exactly a Socialist, or even what anyone could comfortably call an economic centrist, but his words and deeds are unmistakably on the side of the concept that government should actually, you know, be able to function and do things for people. To hear Huck tell it, not all taxes are inherently evil, not every government function should be privatized, and unchecked "market forces" are not the deus ex machina that will lead every American to peace, prosperity, and a pony. The fact that he's -- no other word for it -- surging in the polls may very well mean that a surprising proportion of Republican voters have realized that the laissez-faire economic message they've been spoon-fed for decades is basically a massive, unworkable crock of horseshit.
A word on definitions: there is a difference between "bullshit" and "horseshit". "Bullshit" is a lie told only to enhance the standing of the speaker, usually after a drink or twelve. "Horseshit" is a lie told with deliberate and malicious intent. Your uncle telling war stories at Thanksgiving is a bullshitter. A politician insisting that cutting taxes and increasing spending makes good economic sense is a horseshitter. As you can tell, the Republican party is currently full of horseshitters.
If Huckabee Hound manages to put down the rest of the field, the repulsive, reprehensible "drown the government in the bathtub" wing of the Republican party will basically find themselves shut out of power. With the anticipated increase in Dem control of Congress next fall, they're already having trouble finding jobs on K Street. If they have a plurality of the voters of their own party telling them to get bent, they're done. And they know it. That's the real reason they're freaking, and that's why they're currently throwing anything they can find at Huckabee.
However noxious I may find Mike Huckabee in almost every other way, I absolutely love the fact that he's got the Corporatism-über-alles crowd wetting their collective pants.
I believe the Germans call this feeling Schadenfreude.
Nevertheless...
It's interesting that his out-of-the-mainstream religious views (do I win a prize for understatement?) are what's been getting the most attention; the basic meme running through the chattering classes has been that the Evangelicals are supporting Huckabee because they've finally gotten sick of being used and are taking over and are finally, finally going to convince every last man, woman and child that the earth is 6000 years old, dammit! This interpretation of events -- and particularly the brouhaha over Huckabee's "Christmas ad" -- has Kos practically cackling with glee, and it's got Peggy Noonan wistfully crying into her kool-aid:
Does Mr. Huckabee understand that his approach is making people uncomfortable?
Because, of course, the last thing in the world that any politician should ever do is make Peggy Noonan and the Beltway crowd uncomfortable. Never mind all those icky things like "ideas".
None of this is surprising in the slightest, but it's been a distraction from what really has Grover Norquist and the Club for Growth crowd completely freaked out, namely the fact that the Huckster is a lot more William Jennings Bryan than Ronald Reagan -- that is to say, his appeal may rely just as much on his populist economic message as it does his crazy-ass Creationism.
If you actually look at both his record of actions and his on-the-record statements, Huckabee isn't exactly a Socialist, or even what anyone could comfortably call an economic centrist, but his words and deeds are unmistakably on the side of the concept that government should actually, you know, be able to function and do things for people. To hear Huck tell it, not all taxes are inherently evil, not every government function should be privatized, and unchecked "market forces" are not the deus ex machina that will lead every American to peace, prosperity, and a pony. The fact that he's -- no other word for it -- surging in the polls may very well mean that a surprising proportion of Republican voters have realized that the laissez-faire economic message they've been spoon-fed for decades is basically a massive, unworkable crock of horseshit.
A word on definitions: there is a difference between "bullshit" and "horseshit". "Bullshit" is a lie told only to enhance the standing of the speaker, usually after a drink or twelve. "Horseshit" is a lie told with deliberate and malicious intent. Your uncle telling war stories at Thanksgiving is a bullshitter. A politician insisting that cutting taxes and increasing spending makes good economic sense is a horseshitter. As you can tell, the Republican party is currently full of horseshitters.
If Huckabee Hound manages to put down the rest of the field, the repulsive, reprehensible "drown the government in the bathtub" wing of the Republican party will basically find themselves shut out of power. With the anticipated increase in Dem control of Congress next fall, they're already having trouble finding jobs on K Street. If they have a plurality of the voters of their own party telling them to get bent, they're done. And they know it. That's the real reason they're freaking, and that's why they're currently throwing anything they can find at Huckabee.
However noxious I may find Mike Huckabee in almost every other way, I absolutely love the fact that he's got the Corporatism-über-alles crowd wetting their collective pants.
I believe the Germans call this feeling Schadenfreude.
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