Iowa: The Republicans

Read the previous disclaimer. Oh, ok, ok, I'll repeat it: This is "analysis", and as with all analysis is a mixture of knowledge, experience, and pure conjecture. In other words, I have a logical basis for what I'm pulling out of my ass...

Basically, Huckabee has turned this race into even more of a mess than it was before. Heheheheeeee......

Huckabee:

He could very well be the nominee. That should scare the crap out of everyone alive. Actually, most of the R's should do that, but Huckabee even more so because he has what's called the "common touch" -- that is, being able to use a humorous, self-effacing demeanor to mask the fact that he's absolutely batshit insane (see "Reagan, Ronald"). Too many D's are laughing at him and not realizing what a scary-good politician he really is, and how improbable-yet-inevitable his Iowa victory was. His numbers are climbing in NH, he's solid in Michigan, he's way ahead in SC, and he's basically tied with Giuliani in Florida. He just has to have a decent showing in NH on Tuesday, and if he does it'll be a Huckabee-McCain race.

Romney:

If you outspend everyone else in the race by ridiculous margins and can't put together a win, that means something is seriously wrong with either the campaign or the candidate, usually both. Romney's proved himself to be the "empty suit" of this election, or this year's answer to Phil Gramm in '96. This was supposed to be his win, and he didn't, not by a long shot. NH is supposed to be his, too, but McCain has been surging there (more on that below). If he can't win convincingly in his neighboring state, stick a fork in him. He'll be yet another testament to the old political equation that $$$ + good hair + no real rationale for being President = a waste of money and good hair.

Thompson:

His Iowa campaign was kind of like watching an adult panda in a zoo: everyone's excited to see him, but the excitement fades when he just sits there, doesn't do much, and goes back inside after a few minutes. His numbers everywhere are pretty anemic, and I still say he'll get out any day now.

McCain:

He barely even campaigned here, but still tied for third. He's leading in NH. All of a sudden, having his campaign implode over the summer and going into stealth mode looks like the most brilliant strategy ever. Now that "multiple-choice-Mitt" is damaged goods, Thompson shows no signs of life (literally), and Giuliani has decided to be MIA until Florida, McCain is a viable candidate for the nomination. Look for him to be the "anyone-but-Huckabee" choice.

Paul:

All that money raised, all that buzz, all those dorks with their freeway-overpass signs, all those annoying comments posted on every blog in existence (except this one -- they haven't found us yet), and he can't even beat Grandpa Fred? Hm... It's been speculated widely that considering Paul's low "burn rate" -- the amount of money raised vs. the amount spent -- he's conserving his resources getting ready for a third-party bid (oh please, oh pleeeeeeaaaazeee!!!! It'd be comedy gold!).

Giuliani:

Bypassed Iowa and is largely bypassing New Hampshire to focus on the larger, delegate-rich states. Might look good on paper until you realize that he's handed every one of his opponents a month of free media while he stays largely invisible. This may well be the dumbest, most arrogant, most politically inept thing he's done since... well, come to think of it, pretty much everything he does is dumb, arrogant, and politically inept.

Hunter:

Who? That guy still around?

Keyes:

Nobody's really noticed he's running, and nobody will notice in August when he'll still be running. The man truly lives in his own universe mentally. If only that were true physically as well.


In a nutshell, it's going to be a Huckabee-McCain race down the stretch, with Keyes going on a hunger strike in the desperate hope that someone somewhere will pay attention to him.